Mill production has ramped up as the labor related issues from COVID dissipate. “We could be in for a few more weeks of declines. However, they do believe the bear market will continue through this month. Industry insiders tell Fortune they don’t foresee lumber prices going back to their pre-pandemic levels anytime soon. That combination of increased supply and weakening demand is helping to alleviate the lumber shortage. On the supply side, meanwhile, sawmills-incentivized by record-high prices-upped their production levels. In May, new home construction and home improvement sales were down 8.8% and 8.1%, respectively, from their March highs. As lumber prices got exorbitantly high this spring, homebuilders and DIYers finally started to back off. What’s driving the price correction? Economics 101. However, each dip on the wholesale side could take weeks-if not months-to be reflected in store aisles. “I think we are getting close to a trading level being established, which will bring in buyers off the sidelines and firm up the market. I don’t expect a return to the hyper volatility on the upside we experienced earlier this year, but it’s very reasonable to expect that prices will remain well above their historic norms overall.”Īs wholesale lumber prices fall, big-box retailers will eventually mark down wood products. “The move up was quick and violent, and the fall we have seen has been equally dramatic,” Steve Loebner, director of risk management at Sherwood Lumber, tells Fortune. Lumber’s price remains well above its pre-pandemic range of $350 to $500, however. That’s down 49% from its $1,515 all-time high on May 28. Last week, the “cash” price fell $160, to $770 per thousand board feet of lumber, according to industry trade publication Fastmarkets Random Lengths. But the run on lumber appears to be over as prices continue to fall.
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